Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5049 SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 5196 SAV 17:56 → CLT 19:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5049 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 07:00	CLT 08:25	7%	4%	1.0%	95%
AA 1172 American Flight history →	SAV 05:00	CLT 06:10	8%	4%	0.7%	91%
AA 5676 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 08:47	CLT 10:14	12%	5%	0.8%	88%
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 14:59	CLT 16:23	12%	5%	0.8%	73%
AA 5196 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 17:56	CLT 19:22	14%	6%	0.9%	64%
AA 5890 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 13:05	CLT 14:32	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
AA 5910 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 11:00	CLT 12:26	14%	6%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON