tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2828 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2828 United Flight history → SAV 06:15 EWR 08:27 5% 2% 0.8% 94%
UA 546 United Flight history → SAV 15:24 EWR 17:37 25% 11% 0.9% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397 4h 50m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAV 05:00 → CLT 06:10AA 1172 1h 50m Charlotte CLT 08:00 → EWR 09:59AA 1782 4h 59m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAV 06:43 → ATL 07:53DL 1702 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 38m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA 2h 18m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:37AA 1819 5h 37m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAV 08:00 → ORD 09:39UA 3632 · flown by Republic 2h 32m Chicago ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606 7h 39m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAV 07:00 → IAH 08:31UA 6220 · flown by Mesa 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 7h 27m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAV 08:09 → ATL 09:17DL 686 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 07m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAV 16:53 → ORD 18:30UA 291 3h 00m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 8h 00m 98% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON