Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 142 at 10:56 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Safest bet that day B6 142 SAV 10:56 → JFK 12:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 342 SAV 19:59 → JFK 22:06 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 142 JetBlue Flight history →	SAV 10:56	JFK 12:59	18%	6%	1.0%	85%
B6 342 JetBlue Flight history →	SAV 19:59	JFK 22:06	31%	13%	1.1%	52%
DL 5032 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 07:50	JFK 10:02	9%	5%	4.2%	91%
DL 5207 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 11:47	JFK 13:59	16%	7%	4.1%	84%
DL 5460 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 18:14	JFK 20:39	25%	12%	9.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON