Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3682 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3682 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAV 06:00	MIA 07:34	10%	5%	1.8%	97%
AA 3782 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAV 18:22	MIA 19:55	39%	13%	3.4%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 18m	98%	86%
American Details →	SAV 05:00 → CLT 06:10AA 1172	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436	6h 37m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	SAV 06:43 → ATL 07:53DL 1702	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 19m	98%	78%
American Details →	SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 11m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	SAV 08:09 → ATL 09:17DL 686	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579	6h 46m	100%	73%
American Details →	SAV 08:47 → CLT 10:14AA 5676 · flown by PSA	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912	6h 51m	98%	71%
United Details →	SAV 06:15 → EWR 08:27UA 2828	3h 04m Newark	EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295	8h 23m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 52m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON