Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3632 SAV 08:00 → ORD 09:39 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2507 SAV 13:27 → ORD 15:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3632 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SAV 08:00	ORD 09:39	13%	5%	0.9%	86%
UA 1215 United Flight history →	SAV 11:30	ORD 13:07	13%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 291 United Flight history →	SAV 16:53	ORD 18:30	21%	8%	0.7%	67%
AA 2507 American Flight history →	SAV 13:27	ORD 15:00	22%	8%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON