tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2510 American Flight history → SBA 12:39 DFW 18:05 25% 9% 0.8% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800 5h 40m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:40 → DFW 12:48UA 355 5h 48m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → DFW 14:25UA 1062 6h 10m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → SBA 06:00 → PHX 07:36AA 1640 1h 54m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → DFW 14:08AA 554 6h 08m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 42m San Francisco SFO 18:50 → DFW 00:37 +1UA 2478 8h 39m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392 7h 08m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:56 → DEN 16:24UA 1790 2h 29m Denver DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565 7h 03m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → SBA 12:10 → PHX 13:51AA 4993 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Phoenix PHX 17:15 → DFW 21:50AA 3232 7h 40m 100% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SBA 12:10 → PHX 13:51AA 4993 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Phoenix PHX 15:15 → DFW 19:53AA 2113 5h 43m 73% 52%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 19:28 → SEA 22:00AS 400 1h 03m Seattle SEA 23:03 → DFW 05:02 +1AS 542 7h 34m 71% 48%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:37 → ORD 19:00UA 1009 50m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 7h 59m 58% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON