tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4649 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SBA 06:00 LAX 07:03 8% 5% 0.8% 91%
UA 5647 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SBA 18:18 LAX 19:32 17% 8% 0.7% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 1h 25m San Francisco SFO 08:50 → LAX 10:34UA 1896 4h 19m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 37m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 35m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → SBA 06:00 → PHX 07:36AA 1640 3h 00m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → LAX 12:06AA 2869 6h 06m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAX 13:20AS 695 5h 46m 92% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SBA 05:05 → LAS 06:30WN 4422 2h 30m Las Vegas LAS 09:00 → LAX 10:15WN 973 5h 10m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 6h 52m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 27m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest 47m San Francisco SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179 3h 55m 54% 40%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon 48m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 5h 30m 50% 39%
UnitedDetails → SBA 09:59 → SFO 11:25UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest 50m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 3h 56m 35% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON