Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2336 at 11:20, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2336 Southwest Flight history →	SBA 11:20	OAK 12:30	8%	4%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	5h 56m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	98%	91%
Southwest Details →	SBA 05:05 → LAS 06:30WN 4422	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 07:35 → OAK 09:10WN 5052	4h 05m	96%	89%
Alaska Details →	SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon	3h 05m Portland	PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon	7h 02m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	SBA 06:05 → DEN 09:20WN 4125	1h 35m Denver	DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577	6h 20m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	SBA 18:00 → LAS 19:15WN 3602	2h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 21:55 → OAK 23:30WN 2289	5h 30m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	SBA 09:40 → LAS 10:55WN 3601	2h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 13:30 → OAK 15:10WN 4488	5h 30m	95%	69%
Alaska Details →	SBA 06:00 → SAN 07:04AS 2174 · flown by Horizon	1h 10m San Diego	SAN 08:14 → OAK 09:57AS 3320 · flown by SkyWest	3h 57m	93%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON