tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1009 United Flight history → SBA 12:37 ORD 19:00 29% 9% 0.7% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SBA 18:18 → LAX 19:32UA 5647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 58m Los Angeles LAX 23:30 → ORD 05:46 +1UA 1962 9h 28m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 2h 48m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 7h 55m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Los Angeles LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946 6h 35m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:56 → DEN 16:24UA 1790 3h 16m Denver DEN 19:40 → ORD 23:19UA 2085 8h 23m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 26m San Francisco SFO 18:34 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1375 9h 01m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → SBA 06:00 → PHX 07:36AA 1640 2h 39m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → ORD 16:12AA 2252 8h 12m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → SBA 12:10 → PHX 13:51AA 4993 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m Phoenix PHX 17:38 → ORD 23:30AA 435 9h 20m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 2h 36m San Diego SAN 17:23 → ORD 23:36AS 1493 7h 54m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 18:34 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1375 6h 56m 72% 56%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 1h 13m San Francisco SFO 16:21 → ORD 22:59UA 1482 7h 01m 72% 55%
UnitedDetails → SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest 48m San Francisco SFO 22:38 → ORD 05:01 +1UA 2278 6h 37m 54% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON