Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1640 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1640 SBA 06:00 → PHX 07:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2515 SBA 19:15 → PHX 20:52 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1640 American Flight history →	SBA 06:00	PHX 07:36	9%	5%	0.8%	95%
AA 4031 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SBA 09:45	PHX 11:23	17%	6%	1.1%	89%
AA 4993 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 12:10	PHX 13:51	27%	11%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
AA 2515 American Flight history →	SBA 19:15	PHX 20:52	31%	11%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON