tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 2174 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SBA 06:00 SAN 07:04 9% 2% 15.4% 91%
AS 2176 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SBA 13:42 SAN 14:47 27% 4% 0.0% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 18m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SBA 18:18 → LAX 19:32UA 5647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Los Angeles LAX 22:56 → SAN 23:54UA 594 5h 36m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 2h 48m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:49DL 1202 6h 59m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → SBA 05:05 → LAS 06:30WN 4422 2h 10m Las Vegas LAS 08:40 → SAN 09:55WN 2121 4h 50m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest 1h 57m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → SAN 10:08UA 4643 · flown by SkyWest 4h 08m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 5h 26m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → SBA 06:00 → PHX 07:36AA 1640 2h 54m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → SAN 11:47AA 2477 5h 47m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest 52m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 4h 07m 56% 40%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon 51m Portland PDX 17:40 → SAN 20:18AS 369 5h 39m 54% 35%
UnitedDetails → SBA 09:59 → SFO 11:25UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 4h 09m 42% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON