tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 400 at 19:28, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 400 Alaska Flight history → SBA 19:28 SEA 22:00 31% 9% 0.8% 71%
AS 2143 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SBA 10:51 SEA 13:26 18% 0% 1.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 59m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 2h 18m Portland PDX 12:03 → SEA 13:03AS 3078 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SEA 00:01 +1DL 2998 7h 11m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → SBA 09:45 → PHX 11:23AA 4031 · flown by Envoy 3h 12m Phoenix PHX 14:35 → SEA 17:44AA 4035 · flown by Envoy 7h 59m 96% 75%
SouthwestDetails → SBA 05:05 → LAS 06:30WN 4422 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 07:40 → SEA 10:25WN 739 5h 20m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m San Francisco SFO 20:45 → SEA 23:10UA 1007 7h 07m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 5h 53m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 20m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SEA 20:53UA 1577 6h 55m 97% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 59m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SEA 20:53UA 1577 4h 50m 67% 44%
UnitedDetails → SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 22:59 → SEA 01:29 +1UA 5579 · flown by SkyWest 5h 05m 64% 42%
SouthwestDetails → SBA 19:50 → SMF 21:05WN 3603 50m Sacramento SMF 21:55 → SEA 23:55WN 4985 4h 05m 54% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON