tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3603 at 19:50, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3603 Southwest Flight history → SBA 19:50 SMF 21:05 25% 10% 0.5% 86%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SBA 05:05 → LAS 06:30WN 4422 3h 05m Las Vegas LAS 09:35 → SMF 11:10WN 1122 6h 05m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 26m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 54m 98% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 15m Portland PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon 4h 59m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585 5h 36m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Los Angeles LAX 09:20 → SMF 10:56UA 5372 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 96% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SBA 06:05 → DEN 09:20WN 4125 1h 00m Denver DEN 10:20 → SMF 11:55WN 1740 5h 50m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → SBA 06:00 → PHX 07:36AA 1640 2h 28m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SMF 12:04AA 2630 6h 04m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SBA 10:51 → SEA 13:26AS 2143 · flown by Horizon 50m Seattle SEA 14:16 → SMF 16:11AS 681 5h 20m 73% 49%
UnitedDetails → SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → SMF 23:59UA 1302 3h 35m 61% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON