Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2407 SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1126 SDF 18:54 → ATL 20:34 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2407 Delta Flight history →	SDF 06:00	ATL 07:24	5%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1374 Delta Flight history →	SDF 11:17	ATL 12:45	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1523 Delta Flight history →	SDF 10:00	ATL 11:24	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2299 Delta Flight history →	SDF 08:10	ATL 09:40	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1610 Delta Flight history →	SDF 07:05	ATL 08:35	8%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 1481 Delta Flight history →	SDF 13:02	ATL 14:33	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 3195 Delta Flight history →	SDF 16:47	ATL 18:25	11%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 1126 Delta Flight history →	SDF 18:54	ATL 20:34	12%	5%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON