Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3604 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3604 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 07:25	BNA 07:15	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 1712 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 18:05	BNA 17:55	27%	6%	0.6%	45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BNA 10:10DL 1155	5h 10m	99%	91%
Southwest Details →	SDF 05:50 → BWI 07:25WN 4612	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487	5h 45m	100%	90%
United Details →	SDF 09:00 → ORD 09:38UA 3696 · flown by Republic	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 12:29 → BNA 14:14UA 3634 · flown by Republic	6h 14m	100%	90%
United Details →	SDF 06:00 → IAD 07:35UA 3438 · flown by Republic	55m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366	4h 29m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	5h 25m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557	6h 13m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	SDF 08:45 → MDW 09:00WN 3609	2h 20m Chicago	MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733	5h 00m	100%	86%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414	6h 14m	98%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 17:55 → MSP 19:05DL 5017 · flown by Endeavor	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144	5h 31m	67%	55%
United Details →	SDF 14:10 → ORD 14:50UA 5603 · flown by SkyWest	59m Chicago	ORD 15:49 → BNA 17:40UA 5665 · flown by SkyWest	4h 30m	70%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON