tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → SDF 12:49 BOS 15:25 12% 5% 0.6% 79%
AA 4507 American flown by Republic Flight history → SDF 16:46 BOS 19:16 17% 10% 0.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:00 → IAD 07:35UA 3438 · flown by Republic 2h 25m Dulles IAD 10:00 → BOS 11:52UA 3552 · flown by Republic 5h 52m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 05:50 → BWI 07:25WN 4612 50m Baltimore BWI 08:15 → BOS 09:50WN 884 4h 00m 96% 90%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 1h 51m Washington DCA 09:41 → BOS 11:25AA 4691 · flown by Republic 5h 25m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 6h 45m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → LGA 08:12DL 5652 · flown by Republic 1h 48m New York LGA 10:00 → BOS 11:23DL 5728 · flown by Republic 5h 23m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → SDF 05:04 → CLT 06:41AA 5255 · flown by PSA 2h 14m Charlotte CLT 08:55 → BOS 11:08AA 1533 6h 04m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 6h 42m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic 3h 21m Newark EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669 6h 46m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SDF 14:22 → DCA 16:10AA 5227 · flown by PSA 50m Washington DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:47AA 3207 4h 25m 72% 51%
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:55 → MSP 19:05DL 5017 · flown by Endeavor 1h 04m Minneapolis MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614 6h 00m 63% 49%
UnitedDetails → SDF 09:00 → ORD 09:38UA 3696 · flown by Republic 52m Chicago ORD 10:30 → BOS 14:07UA 1606 5h 07m 44% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON