Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5255 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 5255 SDF 05:04 → CLT 06:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1775 SDF 20:19 → CLT 21:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5255 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 05:04	CLT 06:41	6%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 5395 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 12:00	CLT 13:39	12%	5%	0.8%	73%
AA 5397 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 15:39	CLT 17:24	13%	6%	0.8%	67%
AA 2099 American Flight history →	SDF 08:15	CLT 09:54	16%	6%	0.8%	83%
AA 1775 American Flight history →	SDF 20:19	CLT 21:55	22%	7%	0.9%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON