tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4466 at 12:00, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4466 Southwest Flight history → SDF 12:00 DAL 13:05 14% 2% 0.6% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SDF 05:50 → BWI 07:25WN 4612 2h 10m Baltimore BWI 09:35 → DAL 11:45WN 931 6h 55m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 07:25 → BNA 07:15WN 3604 3h 55m Nashville BNA 11:10 → DAL 13:05WN 487 6h 40m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115 6h 24m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 08:45 → MDW 09:00WN 3609 3h 20m Chicago MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757 6h 50m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SDF 10:00 → ATL 11:24DL 1523 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512 6h 03m 96% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 10:45 → BWI 12:20WN 1267 1h 55m Baltimore BWI 14:15 → DAL 16:15WN 932 6h 30m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104 6h 38m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SDF 13:02 → ATL 14:33DL 1481 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780 5h 52m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SDF 18:05 → BNA 17:55WN 1712 1h 00m Nashville BNA 18:55 → DAL 20:50WN 490 3h 45m 73% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON