Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4549 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4549 SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5227 SDF 14:22 → DCA 16:10 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4549 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:00	DCA 07:50	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 5400 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 09:42	DCA 11:30	12%	8%	1.3%	79%
AA 5227 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 14:22	DCA 16:10	20%	9%	1.4%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON