Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3788 at 11:09 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3788 SDF 11:09 → DFW 12:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2519 SDF 19:50 → DFW 21:12 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3788 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 11:09	DFW 12:30	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 331 American Flight history →	SDF 06:38	DFW 08:08	13%	7%	1.1%	80%
AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 13:18	DFW 14:40	14%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 4152 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 18:01	DFW 19:25	17%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 1796 American	SDF 16:05	DFW 17:33	21%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 2519 American Flight history →	SDF 19:50	DFW 21:12	26%	11%	0.9%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON