tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3606 at 15:00, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3606 Southwest Flight history → SDF 15:00 HOU 16:20 21% 5% 1.4% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SDF 08:45 → MDW 09:00WN 3609 1h 10m Chicago MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783 5h 05m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509 4h 45m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 05:50 → BWI 07:25WN 4612 2h 35m Baltimore BWI 10:00 → HOU 12:15WN 956 7h 25m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195 6h 05m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 6h 05m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:38 → DFW 08:08AA 331 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 6h 38m 97% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 12:00 → DAL 13:05WN 4466 2h 25m Dallas DAL 15:30 → HOU 16:50WN 37 5h 50m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → SDF 13:18 → DFW 14:40AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 6h 01m 100% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON