tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3607 at 06:15, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3607 Southwest Flight history → SDF 06:15 LAS 07:10 5% 1% 0.5% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 00m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 05:50 → BWI 07:25WN 4612 2h 10m Baltimore BWI 09:35 → LAS 11:35WN 974 8h 45m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa 3h 13m Houston IAH 10:55 → LAS 12:14UA 1799 8h 59m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 3h 04m Chicago ORD 11:00 → LAS 13:05UA 2440 8h 50m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic 3h 47m Newark EWR 12:25 → LAS 14:53UA 1864 11h 23m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 57m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SDF 08:00 → DEN 08:59UA 1506 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SDF 10:05 → IAD 11:45UA 3717 · flown by Republic 1h 15m Dulles IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09UA 2156 8h 04m 94% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SDF 14:10 → ORD 14:50UA 5603 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Chicago ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875 6h 47m 72% 55%
DeltaDetails → SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m Minneapolis MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542 6h 30m 59% 48%
DeltaDetails → SDF 14:19 → DTW 15:46DL 5160 · flown by Endeavor 49m Detroit DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766 6h 32m 62% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON