Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4679 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4679 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 06:40	MCO 08:40	5%	1%	11.7%	90%
WN 910 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 17:30	MCO 19:35	26%	9%	17.3%	44%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SDF 07:25 → BNA 07:15WN 3604	2h 00m Nashville	BNA 09:15 → MCO 12:10WN 4712	4h 45m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213	3h 56m	95%	74%
Southwest Details →	SDF 05:50 → BWI 07:25WN 4612	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 09:30 → MCO 11:50WN 3658	6h 00m	100%	74%
United Details →	SDF 06:00 → IAD 07:35UA 3438 · flown by Republic	1h 10m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379	5h 08m	96%	72%
American Details →	SDF 05:04 → CLT 06:41AA 5255 · flown by PSA	3h 28m Charlotte	CLT 10:09 → MCO 11:57AA 2074	6h 53m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664	4h 55m	96%	70%
American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic	3h 35m Washington	DCA 11:25 → MCO 13:51AA 2062	7h 51m	99%	69%
United Details →	SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic	1h 23m Newark	EWR 10:01 → MCO 12:54UA 1739	6h 24m	98%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 14:19 → DTW 15:46DL 5160 · flown by Endeavor	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 16:48 → MCO 19:48DL 1133	5h 29m	72%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON