tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 1325 at 06:00, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1325 American Flight history → SDF 06:00 MIA 08:33 13% 5% 1.4% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 4h 57m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:00 → IAD 07:35UA 3438 · flown by Republic 1h 10m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 35m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → SDF 05:04 → CLT 06:41AA 5255 · flown by PSA 2h 44m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436 6h 33m 97% 78%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 05:50 → BWI 07:25WN 4612 55m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → MIA 11:00WN 3278 5h 10m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 57m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 2h 05m Washington DCA 09:55 → MIA 12:38AA 1173 6h 38m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579 6h 45m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 6h 52m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SDF 09:00 → ORD 09:38UA 3696 · flown by Republic 55m Chicago ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620 5h 57m 65% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON