Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4704 at 11:06 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 4704 SDF 11:06 → ORD 11:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 5929 SDF 17:50 → ORD 18:40 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4704 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 11:06	ORD 11:45	9%	3%	0.8%	96%
UA 3422 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:15	ORD 07:56	11%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 4622 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:48	ORD 07:35	12%	3%	0.8%	86%
UA 3696 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 09:00	ORD 09:38	14%	3%	0.8%	95%
AA 4668 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 18:57	ORD 19:59	19%	7%	0.9%	79%
UA 5629 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 10:04	ORD 10:40	24%	11%	1.0%	55%
UA 5603 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 14:10	ORD 14:50	29%	12%	1.1%	57%
UA 5929 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 17:50	ORD 18:40	32%	12%	1.2%	59%
UA 4563 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 19:55	ORD 20:40	23%	5%	6.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON