Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4750 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Safest bet that day AA 4750 SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 5394 SDF 18:25 → PHL 20:23 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4750 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:37	PHL 09:38	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 5394 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 18:25	PHL 20:23	17%	9%	1.3%	57%
AA 5915 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 12:12	PHL 14:20	23%	8%	3.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON