tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 26% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 670 Southwest Flight history → SDF 12:35 PHX 13:15 16% 4% 0.6% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SDF 06:15 → LAS 07:10WN 3607 2h 30m Las Vegas LAS 09:40 → PHX 11:00WN 2310 7h 45m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa 1h 58m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 19m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 03m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SDF 05:04 → CLT 06:41AA 5255 · flown by PSA 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 9h 00m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic 2h 46m Newark EWR 11:24 → PHX 13:39UA 370 10h 09m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 31m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 9h 00m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic 1h 27m Philadelphia PHL 11:05 → PHX 13:09AA 646 8h 32m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → SDF 08:00 → DEN 08:59UA 1506 2h 26m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 7h 25m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 14:19 → DTW 15:46DL 5160 · flown by Endeavor 1h 04m Detroit DTW 16:50 → PHX 17:55DL 1135 6h 36m 73% 56%
DeltaDetails → SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 6h 29m 61% 51%
UnitedDetails → SDF 09:00 → ORD 09:38UA 3696 · flown by Republic 47m Chicago ORD 10:25 → PHX 12:26UA 2822 6h 26m 26% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON