tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 650 at 10:50, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 650 Southwest Flight history → SDF 10:50 TPA 12:50 13% 3% 17.1% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:00 → IAD 07:35UA 3438 · flown by Republic 1h 25m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 32m 96% 73%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 05:50 → BWI 07:25WN 4612 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 08:30 → TPA 11:00WN 1120 5h 10m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → SDF 09:00 → ORD 09:38UA 3696 · flown by Republic 1h 41m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 6h 12m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 4h 07m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 2h 25m Washington DCA 10:15 → TPA 12:40AA 2852 6h 40m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → SDF 05:04 → CLT 06:41AA 5255 · flown by PSA 57m Charlotte CLT 07:38 → TPA 09:22AA 3320 4h 18m 94% 70%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 5h 34m 97% 70%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 17:05 → BWI 18:45WN 4209 2h 35m Baltimore BWI 21:20 → TPA 23:55WN 4578 6h 50m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:26 → DTW 18:58DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor 1h 01m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 5h 09m 66% 43%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 18:05 → BNA 17:55WN 1712 50m Nashville BNA 18:45 → TPA 21:35WN 686 3h 30m 64% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON