tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 327 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:50 ABQ 13:53 20% 4% 0.6% 86%
AS 1526 Alaska Flight history → SEA 19:55 ABQ 23:59 26% 7% 0.6% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 10:01 → ABQ 11:45DL 4084 · flown by SkyWest 5h 15m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:45DL 1120 4h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → ABQ 22:30DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest 8h 00m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 14:10 → ABQ 15:54DL 3820 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:15 → SFO 07:35UA 5676 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m San Francisco SFO 09:04 → ABQ 12:44UA 5401 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:44 → DFW 06:43AA 2429 3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → ABQ 11:37AA 3371 · flown by Envoy 9h 53m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:05 → MSP 14:24DL 536 3h 47m Minneapolis MSP 18:11 → ABQ 19:55DL 730 9h 50m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 2h 05m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → ABQ 18:07DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:46 → ABQ 19:39AA 3659 · flown by Envoy 6h 59m 63% 48%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 15:05 → DAL 21:00WN 1404 50m Dallas DAL 21:50 → ABQ 22:40WN 1255 6h 35m 63% 39%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 19:10 → PHX 22:05WN 868 50m Phoenix PHX 22:55 → ABQ 01:10 +1WN 2863 5h 00m 45% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON