tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3220 at 12:26, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3220 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SEA 12:26 ACV 14:13 28% 13% 1.2% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 37m Denver DEN 11:20 → ACV 13:24UA 5506 · flown by SkyWest 8h 24m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SEA 17:20 → SFO 19:37UA 2164 2h 58m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest 6h 39m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 3h 35m San Francisco SFO 21:22 → ACV 22:50UA 5626 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:29 → SFO 12:47UA 1482 3h 44m San Francisco SFO 16:31 → ACV 18:03UA 5480 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 98% 66%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:15 → SFO 07:35UA 5676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest 6h 27m 100% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 19:05 → SFO 21:21UA 2241 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest 4h 54m 70% 50%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:00 → SFO 09:18UA 1578 57m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest 4h 42m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON