Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 85 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day AS 85 SEA 06:03 → ANC 08:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 669 SEA 22:59 → ANC 01:37 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 85 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:03	ANC 08:40	11%	2%	1.0%	88%
DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:35	ANC 10:21	12%	3%	0.9%	94%
AS 79 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:53	ANC 10:37	18%	3%	1.0%	90%
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ANC 13:17	22%	4%	0.8%	80%
DL 928 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:40	ANC 16:25	24%	4%	0.7%	73%
AS 657 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:18	ANC 15:06	25%	3%	1.0%	76%
DL 936 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:20	ANC 23:58	26%	5%	0.8%	73%
AS 660 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:47	ANC 17:26	26%	4%	0.9%	82%
DL 931 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	ANC 20:08	26%	4%	0.8%	78%
AS 225 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:59	ANC 19:38	28%	5%	0.8%	77%
AS 357 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:21	ANC 12:00	28%	3%	0.9%	79%
AS 99 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:58	ANC 18:37	29%	4%	0.9%	78%
AS 1560 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:57	ANC 00:41	30%	4%	0.8%	73%
AS 433 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:59	ANC 13:41	31%	4%	1.0%	80%worse than usual
AS 1363 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:59	ANC 02:43	31%	4%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
AS 661 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:46	ANC 21:25	31%	5%	0.8%	71%
AS 83 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:39	ANC 14:27	32%	4%	0.9%	72%
AS 767 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:52	ANC 20:34	32%	5%	0.8%	70%
AS 1810 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:14	ANC 13:00	32%	4%	0.9%	70%
AS 667 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:25	ANC 23:08	33%	5%	0.8%	71%
AS 659 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	ANC 16:20	33%	4%	1.0%	64%
AS 771 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:15	ANC 23:55	33%	5%	0.8%	67%
AS 663 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:43	ANC 22:22	34%	5%	0.8%	73%
AS 669 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:59	ANC 01:37	35%	5%	1.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON