Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 569 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 569 SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 464 SEA 23:31 → ATL 07:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 569 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:00	ATL 13:53	6%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 562 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ATL 15:17	14%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 560 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:00	ATL 00:10	18%	5%	0.7%	87%
DL 797 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:35	ATL 16:31	18%	5%	0.7%	69%
DL 542 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:35	ATL 21:47	20%	6%	0.7%	80%
DL 567 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:45	ATL 05:38	20%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 554 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:59	ATL 20:04	22%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 652 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:59	ATL 07:47	22%	5%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AS 727 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:05	ATL 23:59	24%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 409 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:58	ATL 06:45	24%	5%	0.8%	83%
AS 334 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:05	ATL 16:57	25%	4%	0.6%	82%
AS 464 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:31	ATL 07:24	26%	4%	0.7%	88%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 17m Denver	DEN 10:00 → ATL 15:09UA 2424	7h 09m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 09m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Spokane	GEG 22:48 → ATL 06:05 +1DL 1843	7h 08m	92%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON