Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 739 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 739 SEA 07:15 → AUS 13:26 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4956 SEA 13:50 → AUS 20:05 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 739 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	AUS 13:26	12%	4%	0.8%	90%
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:00	AUS 17:16	28%	5%	0.7%	79%
AS 372 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:19	AUS 00:31	30%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 848 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:50	AUS 23:53	31%	8%	0.7%	75%
AS 422 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:05	AUS 15:14	31%	4%	0.6%	69%
AS 604 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:46	AUS 18:04	34%	6%	0.6%	78%worse than usual
WN 4956 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 13:50	AUS 20:05	39%	9%	0.5%	40%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SEA 07:50 → DEN 11:25WN 3397	1h 15m Denver	DEN 12:40 → AUS 15:50WN 1476	6h 00m	96%	75%
United Details →	SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505	59m Denver	DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270	6h 02m	85%	68%
United Details →	SEA 15:40 → DEN 19:29UA 325	58m Denver	DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943	6h 04m	79%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON