Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 488 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day AS 488 SEA 06:40 → BUR 09:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 1408 SEA 19:23 → BUR 21:59 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 488 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:40	BUR 09:12	10%	2%	1.5%	92%
AS 426 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:43	BUR 12:23	25%	5%	1.5%	86%worse than usual
AS 529 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:20	BUR 13:56	29%	6%	1.2%	73%
AS 1372 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:58	BUR 20:39	31%	9%	1.0%	74%
AS 331 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:10	BUR 17:45	32%	8%	1.2%	65%
AS 1408 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:23	BUR 21:59	36%	9%	1.0%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON