Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 378 at 09:03 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 378 SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 3613 SEA 21:25 → BWI 05:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 378 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:03	BWI 17:04	18%	3%	0.7%	84%
AS 781 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:22	BWI 06:27	21%	3%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
WN 3613 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 21:25	BWI 05:20	30%	7%	0.6%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	96%	84%
Southwest Details →	SEA 11:45 → MDW 18:00WN 3081	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 19:00 → BWI 21:55WN 2745	7h 10m	75%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON