tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 216 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:10 CLE 16:36 18% 4% 0.6% 80%
AS 269 Alaska Flight history → SEA 22:13 CLE 05:43 21% 5% 0.7% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748 3h 14m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 10h 30m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 17:04 → LAX 19:53UA 1730 2h 40m Los Angeles LAX 22:33 → CLE 06:08 +1UA 2641 10h 04m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 57m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 6h 36m 93% 82%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324 3h 11m Detroit DTW 20:15 → CLE 21:12DL 4071 · flown by SkyWest 8h 27m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 1h 32m Detroit DTW 14:14 → CLE 15:10DL 3581 · flown by SkyWest 6h 40m 97% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810 50m Chicago MDW 12:15 → CLE 14:25WN 1813 5h 55m 92% 81%
UnitedDetails → SEA 13:00 → IAD 21:06UA 2131 1h 09m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CLE 23:44UA 2131 7h 44m 90% 81%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:15 → SFO 07:35UA 5676 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → CLE 18:29UA 717 10h 14m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 13:55 → ORD 20:21UA 2101 59m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CLE 23:49UA 457 6h 54m 71% 57%
UnitedDetails → SEA 19:05 → SFO 21:21UA 2241 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → CLE 06:34 +1UA 2097 8h 29m 70% 54%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 07:50 → DEN 11:25WN 3397 55m Denver DEN 12:20 → CLE 17:10WN 1506 6h 20m 60% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON