Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 381 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 381 SEA 05:10 → CLT 13:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2529 SEA 13:10 → CLT 21:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 381 American Flight history →	SEA 05:10	CLT 13:17	8%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 854 American Flight history →	SEA 07:10	CLT 15:22	16%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 2793 American Flight history →	SEA 21:35	CLT 05:41	20%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 2525 American Flight history →	SEA 10:47	CLT 19:06	23%	5%	0.6%	80%
AA 2529 American Flight history →	SEA 13:10	CLT 21:20	24%	6%	0.6%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 13:00 → CLT 16:00WN 4343	7h 30m	100%	86%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 07m Denver	DEN 09:50 → CLT 15:12UA 1633	7h 12m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	7h 25m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON