Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 11:20, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 280 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:12	CMH 05:40	26%	4%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
AS 450 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:41	CMH 17:09	29%	4%	0.6%	82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	8h 17m	100%	90%
United Details →	SEA 07:00 → ORD 13:15UA 2618	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 16:34 → CMH 19:13UA 3570 · flown by Republic	9h 13m	97%	85%
American Details →	SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:12AA 2922	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 15:15 → CMH 17:49AA 3361 · flown by Envoy	8h 49m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → CMH 00:44 +1DL 1501	9h 45m	98%	84%
American Details →	SEA 00:44 → DFW 06:43AA 2429	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:11 → CMH 13:50AA 1492	10h 06m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → CMH 17:34DL 2280	8h 34m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:29 → BOS 16:00DL 459	3h 25m Boston	BOS 19:25 → CMH 21:50DL 5629 · flown by Republic	11h 21m	97%	82%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748	54m Houston	IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa	8h 05m	93%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:37 → CMH 21:18AA 3995 · flown by Envoy	7h 56m	75%	59%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → ORD 16:53AA 2523	53m Chicago	ORD 17:46 → CMH 20:25AA 4337 · flown by Republic	7h 03m	68%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON