Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1404 at 15:05, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1404 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 15:05	DAL 21:00	34%	10%	0.6%	16%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615	1h 15m Denver	DEN 10:05 → DAL 13:10WN 1518	5h 55m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	SEA 06:30 → PHX 09:15WN 3001	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255	6h 50m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810	55m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	7h 05m	92%	79%
Southwest Details →	SEA 06:45 → SJC 08:55WN 3626	2h 45m San Jose	SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965	8h 20m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	9h 54m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	SEA 06:15 → OAK 08:25WN 266	2h 35m Oakland	OAK 11:00 → DAL 16:25WN 3014	8h 10m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	SEA 11:05 → HOU 17:25WN 3619	3h 05m Houston	HOU 20:30 → DAL 21:40WN 54	8h 35m	97%	69%
Southwest Details →	SEA 13:50 → AUS 20:05WN 4956	1h 50m Austin	AUS 21:55 → DAL 23:05WN 280	7h 15m	95%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SEA 14:25 → SAN 17:20WN 4910	50m San Diego	SAN 18:10 → DAL 23:15WN 3492	6h 50m	52%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON