Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 786 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 786 SEA 07:20 → DCA 15:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 2 SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 786 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	DCA 15:21	13%	4%	0.8%	91%
AS 4 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:00	DCA 16:16	23%	4%	0.6%	86%
AS 2 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:46	DCA 21:59	34%	7%	0.6%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → DCA 15:35WN 2761	7h 05m	100%	81%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	47m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	6h 59m	82%	71%
American Details →	SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:12AA 2922	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 13:20 → DCA 16:25AA 1675	7h 25m	94%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON