Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2748 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2748 SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 757 SEA 15:21 → DFW 21:24 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2748 American Flight history →	SEA 05:05	DFW 11:02	7%	3%	0.7%	94%
AS 414 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:02	DFW 11:59	10%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 1667 American Flight history →	SEA 07:26	DFW 13:20	16%	5%	0.7%	89%
AA 2429 American Flight history →	SEA 00:44	DFW 06:43	17%	5%	0.8%	89%
AS 340 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:45	DFW 13:49	20%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 803 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:15	DFW 15:13	21%	6%	0.7%	81%
AA 707 American Flight history →	SEA 10:22	DFW 16:30	29%	7%	0.7%	79%
AS 549 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:13	DFW 18:21	30%	6%	0.7%	72%
AS 424 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:56	DFW 23:59	30%	6%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
AA 2003 American Flight history →	SEA 23:22	DFW 05:18	30%	7%	1.0%	61%
DL 870 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:55	DFW 23:55	30%	10%	0.7%	73%
AS 542 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:03	DFW 05:02	31%	5%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
AA 717 American Flight history →	SEA 13:57	DFW 20:04	31%	9%	0.7%	74%
AS 341 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:59	DFW 17:00	32%	5%	0.7%	64%
AA 767 American Flight history →	SEA 11:40	DFW 17:50	32%	9%	0.7%	68%
AA 727 American Flight history →	SEA 17:40	DFW 23:39	33%	9%	0.9%	60%
AA 757 American Flight history →	SEA 15:21	DFW 21:24	33%	8%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	57m Denver	DEN 09:40 → DFW 12:48UA 355	5h 48m	93%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON