Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 812 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 812 SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 343 SEA 22:22 → DTW 05:41 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 812 Delta Flight history →	SEA 05:30	DTW 12:42	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 2324 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	DTW 17:04	17%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 533 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	DTW 21:49	19%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 1706 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:20	DTW 18:37	19%	4%	0.7%	79%
DL 810 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	DTW 06:28	21%	3%	0.8%	88%
AS 313 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:18	DTW 16:33	22%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 343 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:22	DTW 05:41	26%	4%	0.6%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON