tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2191 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 14:08 ELP 18:36 39% 4% 3.8% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 3h 02m Denver DEN 11:45 → ELP 13:35UA 792 7h 35m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 3h 27m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 9h 57m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 11:55 → IAH 18:35UA 2293 3h 05m Houston IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 9h 49m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ELP 13:08AA 3506 · flown by Envoy 7h 03m 96% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810 2h 30m Chicago MDW 13:55 → ELP 16:00WN 2774 9h 30m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:44 → DFW 06:43AA 2429 3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ELP 11:27AA 2210 9h 43m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:16 → ELP 17:01AA 3504 · flown by Envoy 8h 35m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748 2h 59m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 9h 25m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SEA 13:50 → AUS 20:05WN 4956 1h 00m Austin AUS 21:05 → ELP 21:35WN 298 6h 45m 61% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON