Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1900 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1900 SEA 07:30 → EWR 15:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 477 SEA 10:05 → EWR 18:29 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1900 United Flight history →	SEA 07:30	EWR 15:51	13%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 239 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:05	EWR 15:31	15%	3%	0.9%	90%
UA 2100 United Flight history →	SEA 15:23	EWR 23:49	22%	6%	0.7%	85%
UA 1274 United Flight history →	SEA 23:00	EWR 07:18	23%	4%	1.1%	87%
AS 314 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:40	EWR 06:59	25%	4%	1.6%	86%worse than usual
AS 263 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:38	EWR 23:59	32%	7%	0.8%	54%
UA 1708 United Flight history →	SEA 13:05	EWR 21:29	32%	8%	0.7%	74%
AS 477 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:05	EWR 18:29	32%	7%	0.8%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 24m	97%	75%
Alaska Details →	SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon	1h 14m Portland	PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 +1AS 1631	7h 37m	85%	72%
United Details →	SEA 12:50 → DEN 16:42UA 1351	1h 08m Denver	DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613	7h 54m	88%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON