Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1061 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 1061 SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 1512 SEA 23:27 → FAI 02:15 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1061 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:45	FAI 13:42	23%	5%	1.1%	77%
DL 2186 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:41	FAI 00:30	27%	5%	1.0%	79%
AS 1552 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:53	FAI 12:44	31%	3%	1.1%	78%
AS 1507 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:00	FAI 14:55	33%	4%	1.0%	75%
AS 1880 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:28	FAI 23:18	34%	5%	1.0%	69%
AS 284 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:56	FAI 20:46	35%	5%	0.9%	75%worse than usual
AS 1512 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:27	FAI 02:15	36%	3%	1.0%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON