tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 516 Alaska Flight history → SEA 08:23 FLL 17:27 23% 7% 0.9% 83%
DL 338 Delta Flight history → SEA 13:00 FLL 21:52 25% 11% 2.1% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 04m Denver DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47UA 2188 7h 47m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:44 → DFW 06:43AA 2429 3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:21 → FLL 14:14AA 1863 10h 30m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748 2h 59m Houston IAH 14:20 → FLL 18:07UA 462 10h 07m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 11h 26m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745 8h 58m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810 4h 00m Chicago MDW 15:25 → FLL 19:25WN 4899 10h 55m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → SEA 11:02 → DEN 14:51UA 757 2h 54m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:51UA 1374 9h 49m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 9h 40m 100% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835 54m Chicago ORD 17:59 → FLL 22:15UA 2294 8h 23m 69% 49%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:55 → FLL 22:52AA 2946 8h 12m 73% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON