Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3830 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 3830 SEA 07:15 → GEG 08:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 350 SEA 22:54 → GEG 23:59 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3830 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:15	GEG 08:32	10%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 3824 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:35	GEG 10:48	16%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 3857 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:40	GEG 16:55	16%	4%	0.6%	93%
DL 3677 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:57	GEG 21:13	18%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 4145 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:35	GEG 15:47	18%	4%	0.6%	88%
AS 3305 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:51	GEG 16:59	20%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 3832 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:59	GEG 19:15	20%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 3754 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:50	GEG 12:11	21%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 2354 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:45	GEG 23:55	29%	8%	0.7%	60%
AS 1433 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:51	GEG 19:00	34%	5%	0.7%	73%
AS 1342 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:50	GEG 20:56	36%	6%	0.7%	71%
AS 449 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:23	GEG 12:29	36%	4%	0.7%	62%
AS 350 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:54	GEG 23:59	41%	6%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
AS 2135 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:20	GEG 08:26	7%	2%	0.0%	93%
AS 2200 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 09:55	GEG 11:00	8%	2%	1.9%	92%
AS 2074 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 14:22	GEG 15:25	16%	0%	1.8%	84%
AS 2071 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 21:30	GEG 22:36	30%	11%	0.0%	70%
AS 2180 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 14:22	GEG 15:25	41%	0%	0.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON