Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 351 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 351 SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 899 SEA 13:30 → HNL 16:34 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 351 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	HNL 11:34	18%	5%	0.8%	86%
DL 419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:05	HNL 19:11	28%	7%	0.7%	74%
AS 121 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:20	HNL 19:16	33%	7%	0.9%	70%
AS 821 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:00	HNL 11:08	34%	5%	1.0%	72%
AS 761 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:30	HNL 23:35	34%	10%	0.9%	58%
AS 626 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:55	HNL 14:04	43%	8%	1.1%	63%
AS 899 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:30	HNL 16:34	44%	8%	1.1%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	1h 59m Kahului	OGG 18:58 → HNL 19:37AS 1175	8h 44m	96%	70%
Alaska Details →	SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238	1h 40m Kailua/Kona	KOA 20:45 → HNL 21:33AS 1177	8h 34m	94%	70%
Alaska Details →	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	1h 45m Kahului	OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145	8h 30m	95%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON