Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3619 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 11:05	HOU 17:25	41%	8%	1.2%	39%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615	1h 25m Denver	DEN 10:15 → HOU 13:55WN 1543	6h 40m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	SEA 07:35 → SMF 09:35WN 3630	1h 25m Sacramento	SMF 11:00 → HOU 16:45WN 3782	7h 10m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810	3h 35m Chicago	MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124	10h 05m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 22m	96%	77%
Southwest Details →	SEA 06:30 → PHX 09:15WN 3001	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 10:25 → HOU 15:05WN 3067	6h 35m	100%	76%
American Details →	SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	8h 39m	99%	76%
American Details →	SEA 00:44 → DFW 06:43AA 2429	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → HOU 09:48AA 5071 · flown by PSA	7h 04m	93%	76%
Southwest Details →	SEA 09:00 → STL 14:50WN 3632	2h 50m St Louis	STL 17:40 → HOU 19:45WN 5065	8h 45m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 15:21 → DFW 21:24AA 757	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	6h 35m	74%	55%
Southwest Details →	SEA 15:05 → DAL 21:00WN 1404	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 22:00 → HOU 23:15WN 63	6h 10m	66%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON