Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2463 SEA 08:15 → IAD 16:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 367 SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2463 United Flight history →	SEA 08:15	IAD 16:24	14%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 264 United Flight history →	SEA 23:20	IAD 07:22	16%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2131 United Flight history →	SEA 13:00	IAD 21:06	16%	4%	0.6%	93%
AS 406 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:01	IAD 23:59	20%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 541 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:05	IAD 00:08	20%	5%	0.8%	77%
AS 737 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:13	IAD 17:11	21%	5%	0.6%	84%
AS 367 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:43	IAD 06:39	24%	4%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON